“Throttle Gate” Comes to Fruition Following New MacBook Pros

“We can’t blame the technology when we make mistakes”

-Tim Berners-Lee

(Source: Apple)

On July 17th, YouTuber Dave Lee noticed that the 15 inch MacBook Pro was throttling performance. Dave noticed that the computer could not handle the i9 processor as the MacBook got too hot to handle it. In fact, the 2017 15 inch MacBook pro was rendering faster than the 2018. Although Apple has advertised 2.9GHz, the laptop is truly getting around 2.2GHz. The only way Dave could get better numbers for the brand new model was by putting the laptop in the freezer to cool the processor.

To confirm Dave Lee tests, AppleInsider did their own research. Unfortunately, they confirmed the YouTuber’s results; they found that the CPU was very volatile, even running at 2.02 GHz at one point. The numbers were almost the same as the 2017 MacBook Pro i7 processor was hitting.

The problem seems to be that the i9 processor was placed into the same chassis as last year’s model. So, the chassis does not have the ability to properly cool itself, since i9 generates mass amounts of heat. In order to prevent overheating, the laptop throttles the speed to prevent overheating. The former CEO of AMD, Patrick Moorhead, stated, “Processors like the Intel Core i9 are all manufactured with maximum power and heat limitations to maintain a specific frequency. OEMs, like Apple, create thermal solutions for their systems, in this case the MacBook Pro, to remove enough heat so the processor can run at its intended frequency. BIOS settings determine when the cooling kicks on, its intensity, and for how long.”

For now, it seems the best option would be to not purchase the new MacBook Pros till the problem is fixed.

AAPL was unaffected by the MacBook Pro problems.

On June 25th, I Know First algorithm issued a bullish forecast on AAPL

AAPL gained 5.09% since this forecast

This bullish forecast for AAPL was sent to the current I Know First subscribers on June 25th 2018.

To subscribe today click here.

Google’s Former Head of AI Looks to Propel Apple’s Machine Learning

“Artificial Intelligence is a tool not a threat”

-Rodney Brooks

                                                                                                                 (Source: Flickr)

A couple months ago, John Giannandrea, the former head of Google’s search and artificial intelligence division, joined Apple. Reporting directly to Tim Cook, Apple stated that they wanted John to run Apple’s “machine learning and A.I. strategy”. The company is confident in his ability to utilize AI while keeping customers privacy intact.

Apple recently updated their leadership page to include John’s position with Apple, which is Chief of Machine Learning and AI strategy. The company is now combining the machine learning and AI team under John’s leadership. Thus, Core ML and Siri teams are working under one umbrella for the first time.

(Source: Apple)

This is a big win for Apple because they are currently lacking in the AI industry, mainly due to their protection of privacy causing limitations on data collection. Compared to competitors, such as Facebook and Google, Apple is leagues behind in development. John could provide great potential for the growth of Siri and other machine learning technology.

This also has the potential to make advancements for HomePod which uses Siri, a speaker similar to Amazon’s Alexa. The HomePod only has 6% of marketshare, so an expanse into a more knowledgeable Siri could bring it into more homes. Also, with the new Apple maps roll out happening soon, the company hopes for AI to make it more powerful and accurate than ever.

AAPL has been down this week, along with the DOW.

AAPL and DOW (Source: Yahoo Finance)

Apple’s iOS 12 Beta Brings Helpful and Fun Features

“Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower” – Steve Jobs

(Source: Wikimedia)

On June 26, Apple released the iOS 12 public beta. By joining the Apple Beta Software Program, iOS users can test and help strengthen upcoming software updates before world wide release. Coming this fall, iOS 12 looks to make many improvements, both helpful and fun.

Even Faster

With this new version, iOS performance is significantly enhanced. Without a lag, there will be a 70% faster swipe to camera, 50% faster keyboard display, and twice the speed of launching Apps. Ever want to FaceTime with your whole family? Well now you can. Apple is rolling out Group FaceTime, the ability to video chat with 32 people at once.

Apple’s Fun Side

This new update is adding a lot of fun tools to joke around with and make your Android friends jealous. With state of the art face tracking technology, you can now have an Animoji, in your spitting image, track your facial movements and record personalized messages. Apple has added four new Animoji in this update.

(Source: Apple)

 

Cutting the Addiction

It’s fair to say an alarming portion of the population is, whether they know it or not, addicted to their smartphones. Apple knows this and is here to help. They are introducing Screen Time. This brand new feature monitors the amount of time you’re on your iOS device and displays it, helping you choose wisely usage time. Apple is hoping parents will utilize this information for their children; they added a time check feature that limits the amount of time your children can be on a certain app, such as games.

Another Blow to Facebook

As evident from our other articles, Apple takes privacy extremely seriously. They are taking that “fundamental human right” even further in iOS 12. Now, Apple will begin blocking websites from tracking your data without your permission. This prevents advertisers from targeting ads for you, a huge blow to Facebook who utilizes this data collection methodology.

AAPL was up following the release of the iOS 12 Beta.

AAPL, 6/26 (Source: Yahoo Finance)

Apple’s leading Innovation Breakthrough followed by outstanding Q2 Fiscal Financial Results of 2018

“If you’re going to make connections which are innovative… you have to not have the same bag of experiences as everyone else does.” – Steve Jobs

Highlights:

  • Apple on the way to a breakthrough – carbon-free aluminum smelting
  • Financial Results for fiscal Q2 of 2018
  • Q3 Financial Guidance
  • Industrial comparison 

[Image Source: Fossbytes.com]

Apple on the way to a breakthrough – carbon-free aluminum smelting method

Aluminum is a key material in many of Apple’s most popular products, and for more than 130 years, it’s been produced the same way. Aluminum giants Alcoa Corporation and Rio Tinto Aluminum announced a joint project to commercialize original technology that eliminates direct greenhouse gas emissions from the traditional smelting process. This is a key step in aluminum production that if fully developed and implemented, will strengthen the closely integrated Canada-United States aluminum and manufacturing industries.

As part of Apple’s commitment to reducing the environmental impact of its products through innovation, the company helped accelerate the development of this technology. Apple has partnered with both aluminum companies, and the Governments of Canada and Quebec, to collectively invest a combined $144 million to future R&D.  “Apple is committed to advancing technologies that are good for the planet and help protect it for generations to come,” said Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO.

This follows Apple’s announcement last month that all of its facilities are now powered with 100 percent clean energy and 23 of its suppliers have committed to do the same.

 

[Image Source: GlobalMediaIT]

Q2 Financial Results of 2018

On May 1st, 2018, Apple announces its financial Q2 results of 2018. Apple achieved a quarterly revenue of $61.1 billion, 16% increase from Q2 of 2017, quarterly earnings per diluted share of $2.73, up 30%, and generated over $15 billion in operating cash flow. International sales accounted for 65% of the quarter’s revenue. In Q2, iPhone X was sold more than any other iPhone each week and the company’s revenue in all geographic segments grew, with over 20% growth in Greater China and Japan. As for this financial Q2 report, Apple’s board has approved a new $100 billion share repurchase authorization and a 16% increase in their quarterly dividend. Reflecting the approved increase, the board has also declared a cash dividend of $0.73 per share of Apple’s common stock.

Apple is expected to continue to net-share-settle vesting restricted stock units. From the inception of its capital return program in August 2012 through March 2018, Apple has returned $275 billion to shareholders, including $200 billion in share repurchases.

The Company will complete the execution of the previous $210 billion share repurchase authorization during Q3.

Q3 of 2018 Financial Guidance

  • Revenue between $51.5 billion and $53.5 billion
  • Gross Margin between 38% and 38.5%
  • Operating Expenses between $7.7 billion and $7.8 billion
  • Other Income/(Expense) of $400 million
  • Tax Rate of approximately 14.5%

Following the above AAPL stock increased by 12% and my assumption is that it will continue to grow given the high revenues and increasing sales with each quarter of 2018.

[Image source: Yahoo Finance]

Industrial Comparison

Apple Q2 of 2018 Electronics Industry Q1 of 2018
Revenue Quarterly Growth 16% 11.2%
Gross margin 13.75% 58.12%
Operating Income 12.75% 22.59%
Net income 25.33% -45.77%

Presented above is the industrial average growth comparison with Apple’s Q2 growth results of 2018. As shown, one can see that Apple is above the industry average growth in Revenue quarterly growth by about 5% and in Net income Apple is up 71% compared to the industry average.

Today, in my point of view, Apple leads the world in innovation with iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch and Apple TV. Apple’s four software platforms — iOS, macOS, watchOS and tvOS — provide all-in-one experiences with all Apple devices and inspire people with advanced services such as App Store, Apple Music, iCloud etc. Therefore, based on Apple’s advancing technology techniques and growing results I believe AAPL stock will go up in the long term and increase a “buy”, priority over its competitors.

[Image Source: truonghocdautu.com]

My long-term estimation for AAPL is supported by an optimistic one-year forecast from I Know First. The 1-year forecast illustrates a signal of 52.89 and a predictability of 0.7. The 0.7 predictability score for AAPL is saying I Know First’s self-learning Artificial Intelligence has a long history of correctly predicting the one-year market performance of AAPL.

Past I Know First forecast success with Apple

I Know First has made accurate prediction on Apple on August 3, 2017

AAPL is with 21.5% gain since this bullish forecast.

This bullish forecast for AAPL sent to the current I Know First subscribers on August 3, 2017

 

[Image Source: Yahoo Finance]

I Know First Algorithm Heat-map Explanation

This indicator represents the predicted movement direction/trend. The signal strength indicates how much the current price deviates from what the system considers a balance or “fair” price.

The signal strength is the absolute value of the current prediction of the system. The signal can have a positive (increase), or negative (drop) sign. The heat map is arranged according to the signal strength with strongest up signals at the top. The table colors are indicative of the signal. Green indicates to the positive signal and red indicates a negative signal. A deeper color means a stronger signal and a lighter color equals a weaker signal. The sign of the signal tells in which direction the asset price is expected to go (positive = to go up = Long, negative = to drop = Short), the signal strength is related to the magnitude of the expected return and is used for ranking purposes of the investment opportunities.

Predictability measures the importance of the signal. The predictability is the historical relationship between the prediction and the actual market movement for that particular market. For each asset this indicator is recalculated daily. Theoretically the predictability ranges from minus one to plus one. The higher this number is the more predictable the particular asset is. In comparison to different time ranges, predictability will be higher for longer time. This means that longer-range signals are more accurate.

Predictability is a unique indicator of the I Know First algorithm which allows users to focus on the most predictable assets according to the algorithm. One should focus on predictability levels significantly above 0 in order to trust the signal, when ranging between -1 and 1.

Apple Stock Forecast: Bullish Long Drive Goes On In 2018 – Apple’s All Time Records In Q1

Gleb ZInkovskii_photo

 

 

 

The article was written by Gleb Zinkovskii, a Financial Analyst at I Know First.

 

“I think the artistry is in having an insight into what one sees around them. Generally putting things together in a way no one else has before and finding a way to express that to other people who don’t have that insight…”

– Steve Jobs, Smithsonian Institution Oral and Video Histories, April 20, 1995

Highlights:

  • iOS 11.3 preview release – New AR experiences with ARKit 1.5, Health Records – collaboration of Apple with hospitals and clinics
  • Apple opens first official store in Seoul, South Korea expanding its worldwide presence to 18 countries
  • Apple introduced new product in an effort to stay competitive with Google Home and Amazon Echo – HomePod
  • Q1 2018 results are released – all-time records from all perspectives

Apple iphone x

[Source: Flickr.com]

iOS 11.3 release preview: another small step forward for company – big user experience jump

Apple presented its flagship iPhone X device on September 12, 2017 which provided the hardware basis for iOS 11 and empowered it to bring incredible new user experiences like Augmented Reality (AR) and complex face recognition solution for unlocking device and animating Emojis in real-time. Since then the features of the iOS were multiply challenged by many industry experts and the public in respect of the value being brought to customers for the price of iPhone X. Although, real-time animated Emojis are actually a powerful and fun tools to sell the device to Apple fans, the true capabilities horizon of the hardware and software is clearly not utilized so far. The preview of the new iOS version brings new perspectives on future user experience and applications with the updated ARKit, enabling developers to create applications that support AR not just in horizontal but vertical planes. Although it may sound vague from first perspective, actually is an enormous jump into the world of interactive surfaces like walls, posters, paintings, ads, etc. As a result, the potential value of such technology arriving at your palm may result in completely different approach for targeted advertisement and entertainment.

Another highly anticipated by the public feature which was mentioned in the preview and had its own separate press release is Apple Health Records. “Our goal is to help consumers live a better day. We’ve worked closely with the health community to create an experience everyone has wanted for years — to view medical records easily and securely right on your iPhone,” said Jeff Williams, Apple’s COO. “By empowering customers to see their overall health, we hope to help consumers better understand their health and help them lead healthier lives.” Some experts compare this functionality to Apple Pay or Siri with respect to the impact scale on our lifestyle and the way we do our routine and for sure Apple is the company which is capable of taking the lead in such initiative. Another story is for investors to estimate the impact of such technologies’ introduction onto Apple’s value and for sure it will buzz the investor community for some time. Also, investors should consider that the same way Apple Pay stimulated new evolutionary step in online cashless payments, the same way Apple Health Records may become an environment for both offline and online medical care services which has extremely wide market reach and where they will be able to unify around patient’s needs and deliver care in extremely time-efficient and affordable manner. As for the Apple’s investors it is not clear how it will drive the company’s value in short term, but it is to be said that so far technologies which Apple introduces take some time for public to absorb and realize their true potential but when it happens the value sometimes exceeds even most optimistic analyst’s expectations.

Based on the above and the fact that not all of the Apple devices support AR and functionality yet even if they have iOS 11 installed, the hype around the mentioned technologies is capable to significantly drive the demand for the latest devices (iPhone X and iPhone 8). The latest sales results for Q1 2018 (published on February 1, 2018) support this statement as the number of iPhone X units sold rose by 66% and corresponding 113% increase in revenue comparing to Q4 2017 contributing to the overall rise in company’s sales. Additionally, one should reasonably expect intensified demand for the actual services to be provided based on those technologies which will drive additional revenues both directly to Apple and indirectly through third-party developers.

Apple opens first official store in Seoul, South Korea expanding its worldwide presence to 18 countries

Everybody knows what an Apple store is. Everybody knows that Asian market is constantly seeking for new trends, technologies and products. Apple is not an exception and that’s why the first official apple store opened in Gangnam area in Seoul. Although the penetration to the South Korean market is a hard thing to do for a foreign company as the dominance there lies with Samsung and LG, the expansion to this market sends a clear message. “We’re thrilled to open a new home for our customers in the vibrant city of Seoul and we look forward to continuing to grow in Korea,” said Angela Ahrendts, Apple’s senior vice president of Retail. “Our stores are gathering places for the community where everyone is welcome to connect, learn and create.” As ambitious as it sounds, it literally shows strong intention of the company not just to sell its products, but also expand its Apple culture influence to this market being close by it Korean current and future fans. The concept of an official Apple store is also important from marketing and sales perspective, because the new products and services are always start to sell first at official stores rather than at distributors. Therefore, it will give Apple the required means to effectively compete with Samsung and LG and take its piece of cake from this table. This statement is completely in line with the sales statistics being recently published by Apple – the sales growth in Asia Pacific region (excluding Greater China and Japan) in Q1 2018 was 144% and 17% comparing it to Q4 and Q1 in 2017 respectively.

Apple_smartphone_market_share_south_korea

Share of smartphone models sold in South Korea during the month of July 2017, by model [Source: Statista]

Apple introduced new product in an effort to stay competitive with Google Home and Amazon Echo – HomePod

It has been more than 2 and 1 years, respectively, since the release date of Amazon Echo and Google Home. The success of both devices is sometimes questionable and depends on the geography where the associated services are available for both devices. The idea of a smart home and devices which actually assist you in managing your household became not just a buzz but a practical set of tasks to be done by them. However, if you have certain restrictions for services to be utilized by those robots you cannot guarantee the success for such environments among the general public worldwide. Apple did not get into this competition for a while and seems to learn the mistakes done by Amazon and google. As a result, the new product – HomePod – orders on which were opened on February 9, is positioned as “Breakthrough Wireless Speaker that Brings Audio Technologies Into Any Home for an Incredible Listening Experience”. If we chop this motto into pieces it may seem that the competition is not going to be with Amazon or Google, but with audio giants like Bose or JBL. However, in the context of the sales statistics for the home assistant devices and home and portable audio speakers it is clear that the last ones were true success stories and insanely profitable market worldwide. From investor perspective it also seems as a good idea for Apple to compete with this new product in audio industry which is close to the cornerstone products and services like Apple Music, iPod and iPhone. Apple definitely shows a nice strategic approach to this new product, although it does not forget about the Siri – that assistant which became part of the Apple fans’ lives and sometimes a subject for jokes. Official press release says: “With support for HomeKit, HomePod can control hundreds of home accessories or set scenes like, “Hey Siri, I’m home,” to control a number of different accessories at the same time.” It makes clear that the experience gained by the public so far shaped the demand for a specific home assistant functionality which is more of a control hub for already exiting devices scattered around your house, and it is more of a nice touch to have for a more desired primary need – set up a nice mood by turning up good musical vibes. It seems to be a nice entrance point to this market for Apple as a sovereign player and it seems a good move from strategic perspective which investors expect from the Apple management team.

Conclusion – Q1 2018 results released

Based on the press release of the results for the Q1 2018 one should be totally amazed by financials – revenue of $88.3 billion, an increase of 13 percent from the year-ago quarter and quarterly earnings per diluted share of $3.89, up 16 percent. However, if we look up closely to the summary data for the quarter we will see that the most contributing to the overall growth item from the products range is not the newest iPhone X, but “Other Products”[1] section – 36% growth in Q1 2018 comparing to Q1 2017. At the same time we can see that although sequential revenue growth of 68% from Q4 2017 to Q1 2018 is significant it achieved by 113% growth produced by iPhone X and 70% growth produced by Other Products”. iPad and Mac products demonstrated insignificant changes in revenues ranging from -4% to 21% and from -5% to 18% for quarterly sequential and Year-year comparables. Such performance does not seem bad for general public as the market for tablets and laptops are not that dynamic nowadays, but from a strategic perspective it could become a worrying sign of the main revenue drivers’ convergence to just smartphones and accessories like Apple Watch. However, this worrying signs are smoothed out by the introduction of HomePod which may contribute significantly to the Apple environment value proposition to current and potential customers, but also by the fact that Apple became one of the biggest beneficiaries of the current US tax reform. The fact that Apple decided to repatriate extreme amount of cash from overseas which becomes available for reinvestment on US soil and, potentially, for dividends payout accompanied by the company’s stock buy-back program gives strong potential for further freedom to spend it on R&D and M&A activities. The best way to give sense of how much cash became available to Apple belongs to Luca Maestri, Apple CFO: “We have plenty of financial flexibility, of course” and from the published financial statements we can understand that it literally means almost $285 billion. In overall, Apple’s stock performance over Q1 2018 and the period until the press release of the financial statements was above industry benchmarks, but started dropping starting from the middle of January with a slight spike up around the date of the press release.

Apple_20171001_forecast

[Source: Yahoo Finance]

I Know First Forecast on Apple

As far as we have the release of the first quarter fiscal 2018 results of Apple at our disposal, I do believe that the company will continue to show increasing sales of the new iPhone X. However, there is a certain ambiguity around the other revenue drivers and the extent of dividends to be paid to the shareholders. As Tim Cook, Apple CEO mentioned at the annual shareholders meeting held on February 13, although the company has lots of available cash, but it is unlikely that all the amount will be spent in a form of special dividend. As far as it represents the strategic vision of the board on the activities of the company being aimed at investment into R&D and potentially M&A, one should not expect some quick win from the status of Apple shareholder. In my view, as of today the most of the value which shareholders needs to be expected within the long time horizon and we should expect the improvements due to conceptually new products, services and features being proposed as a result of the company’s investments. The I Know First forecast supports my opinion that in short term of 1 month the stock will be rather bullish than neutral with relatively significant predictability and is going to become even more bullish over 3 month and 1 year time with the signal and corresponding predictability increasing over those periods.

Apple_forecast20180218

Past I Know First Forecast with Apple

In May 22nd, 2016 Motek Moyen, a Senior Financial Analyst at I Know First, published an article about Berkshire Hathaway investing $1 billion into Apple Inc. shares just afterwards of Carl Icahn exit from the number of Apple’s shareholders. As per the reports of Berkshire Hathaway at that time it increased its holdings in Apple and went long on it with 23.3% shares. Motek’s bullish endorsement for Apple was backed by the positive algorithmic forecasts from I Know First. The 1 month, 3-month and 12-month algorithmic forecasts for AAPL were all positive.

Current I Know First subscribers received this bullish forecast of AAPL on May 22 nd, 2016.  

To subscribe today click here.

Since then, in accordance with the above I Know First forecast Apple’s stock price gained more than 70% in 1 year and continues to grow further as shown on the below graph:

Apple_1year[Source: Yahoo Finance]

I Know First Algorithm Heatmap Explanation

The sign of the signal tells in which direction the asset price is expected to go (positive = to go up = Long, negative = to drop = Short position), the signal strength is related to the magnitude of the expected return and is used for ranking purposes of the investment opportunities.

Predictability is the actual fitness function being optimized every day, and can be simplified explained as the correlation based quality measure of the signal. This is a unique indicator of the I Know First algorithm. This allows users to separate and focus on the most predictable assets according to the algorithm. Ranging between -1 and 1, one should focus on predictability levels significantly above 0 in order to fill confident about/trust the signal.

How_to_read_IKF_heatmap

To subscribe today and receive exclusive AI-based algorithmic predictions, click here.

[1] Includes sales of Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, iPod touch and Apple-branded and third-party accessories [Source: Apple Inc. Q1 2018 Unaudited Summary Data, Official Apple Inc. Press Release on February 1, 2018]

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Apple Stock Forecast: Up To 68.58% Return In 1 Year

Apple Stock Forecast

This Best Tech Stocks forecast is designed for investors and analysts who need predictions of the best performing stocks for the whole Technology Industry (See Industry Package). It includes 20 stocks with bullish and bearish signals and indicates the best tech stocks to buy:

  • Top 10 tech stocks for the long position
  • Top 10 tech stocks for the short position

Package Name: Tech Stocks
Recommended Positions: Long & Short
Forecast Length: 1 year (8/31/14 – 8/31/15)
I Know First Average: 21.42% Long; 22.42% Short

Get the “Tech Stocks”-Package

Market Screener

The Tech Stocks Package forecast from 8/31/2014 included the top 10 stocks for both the long and short positions. The most impressive stock for the long position was Netflix (NFLX) with a  return of 68.58%. Other top performing stocks from the forecast were Axcelis Technologies (ACLS) and Amazon.com (AMZN) with solid returns of 61.39% and 51.28% respectively. For the short position, the top performing stock was Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) which decreased 56.59% as the algorithm correctly predicted. The average return for the long position was 21.42%, while the average return for the short position was 22.42%. These average returns significantly outperformed the S&P 500 return of -1.56% during the same time horizon.

The Massachusetts based Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (ACLS) saw its most recent bump in share price after releasing their second quarter earnings report.  This report showed net income of $5.9 million, a healthy income that looks even better when compared with the loss they reported in the second quarter of last year.  Both income and revenue surpassed Wall Street’s expectation of this semiconductor manufacturer and analysts expect revenues to increase further in the third quarter.

Algorithmic traders utilize these daily forecasts by the I Know First market prediction system as a tool to enhance portfolio performance, verify their own analysis and act on market opportunities faster. This forecast was sent to current I Know First algorithmic traders.

How to interpret this diagram

Please note-for trading decisions use the most recent forecast. Get today’s forecast and Top stock picks.

Apple Stock Forecast: 6.95% Return In 1 Year

Apple Stock Forecast

This Best Tech Stocks forecast is designed for investors and analysts who need predictions of the best performing stocks for the whole Technology Industry (See Industry Package). It includes 20 stocks with bullish and bearish signals and indicates the best tech stocks to buy:

  • Top 10 tech stocks for the long position
  • Top 10 tech stocks for the short position

Package Name: Tech Stocks
Recommended Positions: Long & Short
Forecast Length: 1 year (8/22/14 – 8/22/15)
I Know First Average: 17.76% Long; 28.13% Short

Get the “Tech Stocks”-Package

apple stock forecast

The Tech Stocks Package forecast from 08/22/2014 included the top 10 stocks for both the long and short positions. The most impressive stock for the long position was Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (ACLS) with a  return of 75.94%. Other top performing stocks from the forecast were Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) & salesforce.com, inc. (CRM) with solid returns of 48.53% and 24.12% respectively. For the short position, the top performing stock was Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) which decreased 58.02% as the algorithm correctly predicted. The average return for the long position was 17.76%, while the average return for the short position was 28.13%. These average returns significantly outperformed the S&P 500 return during the same time horizon.

The Massachusetts based Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (ACLS) saw its most recent bump in share price after releasing their second quarter earnings report.  This report showed net income of $5.9 million, a healthy income that looks even better when compared with the loss they reported in the second quarter of last year.  Both income and revenue surpassed Wall Street’s expectation of this semiconductor manufacturer and analysts expect revenues to increase further in the third quarter.

Algorithmic traders utilize these daily forecasts by the I Know First market prediction system as a tool to enhance portfolio performance, verify their own analysis and act on market opportunities faster. This forecast was sent to current I Know First algorithmic traders.

How to interpret this diagram

Please note-for trading decisions use the most recent forecast. Get today’s forecast and Top stock picks.

Apple Stock Forecast: 28.53% Return in 1 Year

Apple Stock Forecast

This forecast is part of the “Risk-Conscious” package, as one of I Know First’s quantitative investment solutions. We determine our aggressive stock picks by screening our database daily for higher volatility stocks that present more opportunities, but are also more risky. The full Risk-Conscious Package includes a daily forecast for a total of 40 stocks with four main categories:

  • top ten aggressive stocks picks that best fit for long position
  • top ten aggressive stocks picks that best fit for short position
  • top ten conservative stocks picks that best fit for long position
  • top ten conservative stocks picks that best fit for short position

Package Name: Risk-Conscious
Forecast Length: 1 Year (8/10/2014 – 8/10/2015)
I Know First Average: 30.37% (long) & 25.23% (short)

Get the “Risk-Conscious” Package.

Equity Research

How to interpret this diagram:

Algorithmic Stock Forecast: The table on the left is the stock forecast produced by I Know First’s algorithm. Each day, subscribers receive forecasts for six different time horizons. The top ten stocks in the 1-month forecast may be different than those in the 1-year forecast. In the included table, only the relevant tickers have been included. A green box represents a positive forecast, while a red represents a negative forecast. The boxes are then arranged according to their respective signal and predictability values (see below for detailed definitions).

Forecast Performance:The table on the right compares the actual stock performance with I Know First’s prediction. The column titled “Forecast” shows which direction the algorithm predicted, and the column “% Change” shows the actual stock performance over the indicated time period. The “Accuracy” column shows a “√” if the algorithm correctly predicted the direction of the stock or an “x” if the forecast was incorrect. The I Know First Average is the equal-weights average percent change of the stocks listed below, and the S&P 500 may be included for reference if relevant.

Signal: This indicator represents the predicted movement direction/trend; not a percentage or specific target price. The signal strength indicates how much the current price deviates from what the system considers an equilibrium or “fair” price.

Predictability: This value is obtained by calculating the correlation between the current prediction and the actual asset movement for each discrete time period. The algorithm then averages the results of all the prediction points, while giving more weight to recent performance. As the machine keeps learning, the values of P generally increase.

The Algorithm: The system is a predictive algorithm that is based on Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), and incorporating elements of Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms. The system’s predictive analytics are self-updating, and thus live. The algorithm is a powerful resource for any investor conducting black-box trading or algotrading. 

Apple Stock Forecast For The Second Half Of 2015

Apple Stock Forecast

I Know First published a series of bullish articles on Apple . Here is a presentation to illustrate our forecasts on Apple:

Business Disclosure: I Know First Research is the analytic branch of I Know First, a financial startup company that specializes in quantitatively predicting the stock market. We did not receive compensation for this article, and we have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Read More From I Know First Research

Apple Stock Forecast: 23.76% Average Return In 3 Months

Apple Stock Forecast

Apple Stock Forecast: This forecast is part of the “Risk-Conscious” package, as one of I Know First’s quantitative investment solutions. We determine our aggressive stock picks by screening our database daily for higher volatility stocks that present more opportunities, but are also more risky. The full Risk-Conscious Package includes a daily forecast for a total of 40 stocks with four main categories:

  • top ten aggressive stocks picks that best fit for long position
  • top ten aggressive stocks picks that best fit for short position
  • top ten conservative stocks picks that best fit for long position
  • top ten conservative stocks picks that best fit for short position

Package Name: Risk-Conscious
Recommended Positions: Long
Forecast Length: 3 Months (3/9/2015 – 6/9/2015)
I Know First Average: 23.76%

Get the “Risk-Conscious”-Package

 apple stock forecast

How to interpret this diagram:

Algorithmic Stock Forecast: The table on the left is the stock forecast produced by I Know First’s algorithm. Each day, subscribers receive forecasts for six different time horizons. The top ten stocks in the 1-month forecast may be different than those in the 1-year forecast. In the included table, only the relevant tickers have been included. A green box represents a positive forecast, while a red represents a negative forecast. The boxes are then arranged according to their respective signal and predictability values (see below for detailed definitions).

Forecast Performance:The table on the right compares the actual stock performance with I Know First’s prediction. The column titled “Forecast” shows which direction the algorithm predicted, and the column “% Change” shows the actual stock performance over the indicated time period. The “Accuracy” column shows a “√” if the algorithm correctly predicted the direction of the stock or an “x” if the forecast was incorrect. The I Know First Average is the equal-weights average percent change of the stocks listed below, and the S&P 500 may be included for reference if relevant.

Signal: This indicator represents the predicted movement direction/trend; not a percentage or specific target price. The signal strength indicates how much the current price deviates from what the system considers an equilibrium or “fair” price.

Predictability: This value is obtained by calculating the correlation between the current prediction and the actual asset movement for each discrete time period. The algorithm then averages the results of all the prediction points, while giving more weight to recent performance. As the machine keeps learning, the values of P generally increase.

The Algorithm: The system is a predictive algorithm that is based on Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), and incorporating elements of Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms. The system’s predictive analytics are self-updating, and thus live. The algorithm is a powerful resource for any investor conducting black-box trading or algotrading.  Please note-for trading decisions use the most recent forecast. 

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