Apple Stock Prediction: Apple Reclaims Its Status At The Top

This article was written by Ave New, a financial analyst at I Know First. He graduated from the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) with a B.A. Business (Marketing).

 

Apple Stock Prediction

Summary

  • Increase Service Revenue (Apple Pay)
  • Reclaiming top spot in smartphone industry
  • Share buybacks & dividends
  • I Know First’s algorithm maintains a bullish forecast on AAPL shares

Background

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is a multinational corporation that design and manufacture consumer electronics such as mobile communication devices, personal computers, and portable music players. Apple also sell a variety of software, services and peripherals. The company sells its products worldwide through online stores, retail stores and third party wholesalers and retailers.

Apple Stock Prediction

Apple’s diverse range of products means they do not operate in one industry segment, thus they have many different competitors. In the smartphone industry, their main rival is Samsung or other companies that produce android phones. In the computer operating system market, Apple’s biggest competitors are Microsoft and IBM.

The service industry has a lot of sub segments, consequently Apple competes with companies such as Spotify, PayPal, Google, Netflix and Amazon.

Music streaming, Mobile payment services, Exclusive Video content and cloud storage are all services Apple dabble in.

Market Share

In the smartphone industry, Apple reclaimed the top spot from Samsung. With an estimated 431 million units sold, 77 million in 4Q16, an increase of 7%, above the expected number. Apple’s iOS accounted for 17.9% of the market. Up against the Android OS, which accounts for a whopping 81.7% of the market. As shown in the chart below.

Source: Market Realist

Important to note is the fact that the iPhone generated almost 70% of revenues for Apple in fiscal 1Q17. In part, due to the average selling price of phones growing from $619 in the previous September quarter to $695. Other positives to come out of Apple’s earnings was Mac revenue’s rising by 7% to $7.2 billion, following a 17% decrease in the previous quarter. Probably reflective of the $78 increase incurred on the average selling price (up to $1348).

Services Industry

In fiscal 2016, Apple generated $25 Billion in revenue through its Services Business. Apple hopes to increase that figure to an ambitious $50 Billion in 2020.

Nonetheless, they are on track with the segment emergent as Apple’s fastest growing. Increasing by 18% to $7.2 Billion, making up 9% of total revenue for 1Q17. App store sales went up 43% over the first 13 weeks of the quarter, aiding the growth.

Apple’s Services business includes products such as iTunes, iCloud, Apple Pay and Apple Music.

Crucial to achieving the goal of $50 Billion in Revenue is the success of the Apple Pay service. Apple transactions have already risen by more than 500% in the 1Q17. Jennifer Bailey, the VP of Apple’s (AAPL) Apple Pay, stated that more than 35% of US retailers already accept Apple pay.

An estimated adoption rate of 35%, equating to 4 million locations, with a further anticipated adoption rate of 67% the following year.

In October 2016, Apple pay saw some immediate success with launches in Japan, New Zealand and Russia.

Conversely, despite all the positive data, Apple have a lot of ground work to make up on giants such as PayPal (PYPL), Google (Android Pay) and Ali Baba’s (BABA) Ant Financial Services Group to name a few.

Buybacks and Dividends

Majority of tech companies classically keep their cash outside of the United States to reduce/avoid tax burdens. Apple is no exception, holding $246 billion in cash overseas.

On February 16th, 2017, Apple paid $3.1 billion in dividends to its shareholders. Over the last four quarters, $12 million was paid from Apple to its stockholders in dividends. Over the same period, Apple repurchased $31 billion in shares. The vigorous capital return helped to improve shareholder value as well as earnings per share (EPS).

Out of the top ten companies that spent money on buybacks, three belonged to the tech sector. Apple, Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL) with Apple spending the most. In 2012, Apple created a Capital Return program, with $201 billion of a possible $250 billion already being returned. Apple intends to have completed the program by the end of March 2018.

Our very own

On May 23rd, 2016, I Know First’s very own Senior Analyst Motek Moyen wrote an article about Warren Buffet and his recent purchase of Apple stocks. Motek also advised our readers to add AAPL stock to their portfolios, predicting the iPhone would deliver strong sales. All these recommendations were in line with the positive I Know First algorithmic forecasts.

Fast forward 10 months, Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway added an additional 76 million Apple shares to its holdings. Translating to a monster holding $7.7 billion worth of stock and owning more than 1% of Apple stock. In 2017 alone, Berkshire Hathaway has already made more than $1.1 billion off the stock. A significantly higher figure than the $400 odd million they would have made had Buffet not upped their holding.

I Know First Algorithmic Forecast

I Know First’s algorithm maintains a bullish forecast on AAPL shares in the long-term. For the one-year time frame, the algorithm has a 102.08 signal strength and a 0.57 predictability indicator.

I Know First Algorithm Heatmap Explanation

The sign of the signal tells in which direction the asset price is expected to go (positive = to go up = Long, negative = to drop = Short position), the signal strength is related to the magnitude of the expected return and is used for ranking purposes of the investment opportunities.

Predictability is the actual fitness function being optimized every day and can be simplified explained as the correlation based quality measure of the signal. This is a unique indicator of the I Know First algorithm, allowing the user to separate and focus on the most predictable assets according to the algorithm. Ranging between -1 and 1, one should focus on predictability levels significantly above 0 in order to fill confident about/trust the signal.

Conclusion

Consumers love to speculate, with Apple reportedly planning to launch the iPhone 8 with an organic light-emitting diode (OLED) display, all glass body, finger-printless, wireless charging, along with other features that are unknown. Based on the strong sales of the previous iPhone, it’d be safe to assume there would high demand that accompanies the release of their next phone. Pairing strong iPhone sales with robust performance in their other industry segments, specifically the Service industry. Given these factors, I Know First maintains its bullish forecast for Apple.

Past I Know First Success With Apple Inc.

I Know First has been bullish on AAPL shares in past forecasts. On May 23rd, 2016, I know First Analyst wrote about Apple Stock. Since then, Apple shares have risen by more than 45%. As seen below.

This forecast was sent to current I Know First subscribers on May 23rd, 2016. To subscribe today click here.



Apple Stock Prediction Based on Big Data: AAPL Yields Over 14% In 1 Months

Apple Stock Prediction Based on Big Data

Apple Stock Prediction based on Big Data are designed for investors who seeks the best opportunities. The Computer Industry Stocks Package is designed for investors and analysts who need predictions of the best-performing stocks for the whole Computer Industry. It includes 20 stocks with bullish and bearish signals and indicates the best stocks to buy in the computer industry:

  • Top 10 Computer Industry stocks for the long position
  • Top 10 Computer Industry stocks for the short position

Computer Industry
Package Name: Computer Industry Stocks
Recommended Positions: Long
Forecast Length: 1 Month (01/17/2017 – 02/17/2017)
I Know First Average: 12.42%
Apple Stock Prediction Based on Big Data

10 out of 10 stock prices in this forecast for the Computer Industry Stocks Package moved as predicted by the algorithm. INVE was our best stock pick this week a return of 51.35%. AAPL and CHKP followed with returns of 14.51% and 11.58% for the 1 Month period. The package saw an overall yield of 12.42% versus the S&P 500’s return of 3.36% implying a market premium of 9.06%.

Identiv, Inc. (INVE) develops and manufactures physical access control, identity management, and radio frequency identification systems. The Company’s products are used in corporate employee identification (ID) cards, company email, information technology networks and facility access control, in national ID cards and passports, transport passes, banking and other uses.

Algorithmic traders utilize these daily forecasts by the I Know First market prediction system as a tool to enhance portfolio performance, verify their own analysis and act on market opportunities faster. This forecast was sent to current I Know First subscribers.

How to interpret this diagram

Please note-for trading decisions use the most recent forecast. Get today’s forecast and Top stock picks.

Apple Stock Forecast Based on Data Mining: Almost 2% in 3 Days!

The Computer Industry Stocks Package is designed for investors and analysts who need predictions of the best-performing stocks for the whole Computer Industry. It encompasses the Apple Stock Forecast Based on Data Mining. It also includes 20 stocks with bullish and bearish signals and indicates the best stocks to buy in the computer industry:

  • Top 10 Computer Industry stocks for the long position
  • Top 10 Computer Industry stocks for the short position

Computer Industry
Package Name: Computer Industry Stocks
Recommended Positions: Long
Forecast Length: 3 Days (02/07/2017 – 02/10/2017)
I Know First Average: 3.91%

Apple Stock Forecast

9 out of 10 stock prices in this forecast for the Computer Industry Stocks Package moved as predicted by the algorithm. INVE was our best stock pick this week a return of 18.56%. TYL and SINA followed with returns of 7.47% and 4.24% for the 3 Days period. The package saw an overall yield of 3.91% versus the S&P 500’s return of 1.03% implying a market premium of 2.88%.

Identiv, Inc. (INVE) develops and manufactures physical access control, identity management, and radio frequency identification systems. The Company’s products are used in corporate employee identification (ID) cards, company email, information technology networks and facility access control, in national ID cards and passports, transport passes, banking and other uses.

Algorithmic traders utilize these daily forecasts by the I Know First market prediction system as a tool to enhance portfolio performance, verify their own analysis and act on market opportunities faster. This forecast was sent to current I Know First subscribers.

How to interpret this diagram

Please note-for trading decisions use the most recent forecast. Get today’s forecast and Top stock picks.

Apple Stock News: iPhone 8 Expensive Secrets

Apple Stock News

AAPL closed at $132.12 on Friday, February 10, 2017 well above $109 price Warren Buffett paid for his Apple shares in last May. I Know First wrote an article on May 23rd, 2016, explaining the bullish outlook the algorithm made for AAPL and also explaining Buffett’s decision.

2017 promises a year where iPhone will have major upgrades. It’s already known about its radical redesign, but now there are further details on what could be its most significant new feature – and the additional cost it brings…

Apple 8

Apple Stock News

In a new report obtained by 9to5Mac, Kuo says Apple will finally introduce wireless charging across its upcoming iPhone ranges. This will double up with fast wired charging. However, there is a downside that comes with this news. Kuo says the introduction of wireless charging will lead to price hikes.

The main reason for this is the wireless charging component inside the phones. It creates a lot of heat and Apple has had to add a new graphite layer to protect the 3D Touch sensor behind the screen.

Apple appears to be going all out to bring the Wow Factor back to the iPhone range after sticking with essentially the same external design for three generations. If the company succeeds, a $1,000 price point is unlikely to keep committed Apple fans away and it will also see US prices catch up with some of the price hikes Apple made in other countries with the launch of the iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus last year.

The pressure for Apple to perform in 2017 has stepped up after Galaxy S8 leaks revealed Samsung is also planning a smartphone redesign and Google will be back with the second generation of its Pixel and Pixel XL.

Keep checking back for more news regarding AAPL. For Full AAPL forecasts and investment advice by our state of the art algorithm click here.

Apple Stock News: iPhone 8 expected to be sold more than 1000 euros

Apple Stock News

For the latest Apple Stock News, AAPL closed at $132.04 on Wednesday, February 8, 2017 with a 0.8% gain, from its previous close of $131,96 per share.

Apple Stock News

Only Apple could sell a phone above the critical thousand euros bar. And this price would be for the basic version. The new technologies employed by Apple could be very expensive. This is the case of some components, such as OLED screens or TouchID captor. And that’s not all. Users would also be able to reload their phone on a perimeter of 5 km. This would explain the price of the iPhone 8. That is just the price for the United States market. In Europe, it will be more.

However, Apple must do a great job with its flagship product. So, it must make an impression on customers. Perhaps, this is why Apple put such expensive components in its new iPhone. To balance with expensive components, the design might be similar to the iPhone 5. Despite the similarity, the phone’s design will be updated and improved. The only thing that remains is to wait until the release of this exciting new iPhone.

Keep checking back for more news regarding AAPL. For Full AAPL forecasts and investment advice by our state of the art algorithm click here.

Apple Stock Prediction Based on Big Data: AAPL makes a return of 20% in 3 Months

Apple Stock Prediction

This Hedge Fund Stocks Package is designed for investors and analysts who need predictions of the best-performing stocks according to I Know First’s stock market algorithm. It includes 20 stocks with bullish and bearish signals and indicates the best stocks to long and short based on artificial intelligence trading strategies:

  • Top 10 Hedge Fund stocks for the long position
  • Top 10 Hedge Fund stocks for the short position

hedgefunds
Package Name: Hedge Fund Stocks
Recommended Positions: Long
Forecast Length: 3 Months (11/07/2016 – 02/07/2017)
I Know First Average: 20.65%

Apple Stock Prediction

10 out of 10 stock prices in this forecast for the Hedge Fund Stocks Package moved as predicted by the algorithm. ARRY was our best stock pick this week a return of 79.69%. WFC and ADI followed with returns of 27.18% and 20.99% for the 3 Months period. The package saw an overall yield of 20.65% versus the S&P 500’s return of 9.97% implying a market premium of 10.68%.

Array BioPharma Inc. (ARRY)  is a biopharmaceutical company, that is involved in discovery research and drug creation. The Company provides drug discovery products and services to create, evaluate, and optimize potential drug candidates in collaboration with pharmaceutical and other biotechnology companies.

Algorithmic traders utilize these daily forecasts by the I Know First market prediction system as a tool to enhance portfolio performance, verify their own analysis and act on market opportunities faster. This forecast was sent to current I Know First subscribers.

How to interpret this diagram

Please note-for trading decisions use the most recent forecast. Get today’s forecast and Top stock picks.

Apple Stock News: Apple is the leader of the Smartwatch Market

Apple Stock News

For the latest Apple Stock News, AAPL closed at $128.75 on Wednesday, February 2, 2017 with a 0.23% gain, or $0.30 from its previous close of $128.45 per share.

Smartwatch market

The Internet of Things -IoT, is an impressive market. This term referred to the connected objects. Last figures disclosed following Apple Earnings Q4 are significant. In 2016, the smartwatch market represented a record of 21.1 million sales. And Apple is the leader of this business with more than 60% of market share. CEO Tim Cook revealed last night Apple makes its best quarterly results so far (Barron’s).

As the first version, the second updated encountered a real success. The demand towards the new product has been surprisingly strong. This enabled Apple to lead the field well ahead from Samsung. The Korean company only sold 800 000 units in 2016. Neither figures were disclosed by Apple ; But the Research firm Strategic Analysts estimated them to 5.2 million units.

Apple had to deal with competition in China. Their sales here decreased due to aggressive expansion of Chinese companies around the world regarding smartphone sales. However, Apple is still the dominant supplier of smart-watches worldwide. Their weak product portfolio as well as their limited retail presence are at stake. In the context of the 10th anniversary of the iPhone, Apple is expected to launch the Apple Watch Series 3 this year.

Keep checking back for more news regarding AAPL. For Full AAPL forecasts and investment advice by our state of the art algorithm click here.

Apple Stock Forecast: Long-Term Benefits For Apple From Fast-Rising Mobile Games Industry

motek 1The article was written by Motek Moyen Research Seeking Alpha’s #1 Writer on Long Ideas and #2 in Technology  – Senior Analyst at I Know First

Apple Stock Forecast

Summary:

  • The world spent $44.8 billion on mobile apps last year. This industry helped Apple improve its Services revenue by 24% during the most recent quarter.
  • Apple does around 70% of the global apps business.
  • Apple takes 30% commission from app store and in-app purchases done through iOS devices.
  • Strong revenue stream from iTunes App Store could inspire Apple to reduce prices of its iPhone and iPad products in China and other developing markets.
  • I Know First gives AAPL very positive buy signals based on its near and long-term algorithmic forecasts.

Apple (AAPL) device owners helped spent $44.8 billion on mobile apps last year. As a vendor of high-end phones and pricey tablets, Apple’s client base is full of well-to-do people with extra spending power. Expect the people who can afford $700 iPhones to spend $50-$300 every year on iOS apps.

The revenue from Apple’s 30% cut over iOS app store purchases is tremendous.  Hit mobile games like Pokemon Go (released only last July) generated $950 million in revenue in 2016. The 9-figure annual commission on in-app purchases can help Apple offset its declining Mac and iPad business segments. Services, where the iTunes App Store belongs to, grew 24% in Q4 with $6.3 billion in revenue.Apple Stock Prediction

Source: Newzoo

Apple device owners spent $240 million in January 1, 2017 on iTunes App Store, setting a record. The addictive nature of hit mobile games like Game of War: Fire Age, Clash Royale, and Candy rush Saga means iPhone/iPad owners will remain repeat in-app buyers for many years to come.

In America alone, iPhone gamers are spending approximately $7.78 million everyday on the top-10 grossing iOS games.  Apple therefore gets $2.33 million everyday of almost-cost free, easy money from American iPhone gamers.

(Source: ThinkGaming)

Mobile Apps Industry Is Still Growing

Based on the projection of Superdata Research, the business of mobile apps is also predicted to grow to $54.5 billion by 2019. Apple therefore can rely on this particular industry to fuel growth for its Services segment for the next three years.

(Source: Superdata)

On this note, Apple has to improve its iTunes App Store platform to encourage more iPhone/iPad owners to do in-app purchases or app store subscriptions. I suggest Apple allows iPhone owners with cellular service subscriptions to do app store purchases through carrier billing, not just through credit card payments.

There are iPhone/iPad owners in China, India, and Africa that cannot qualify for credit card applications. They do qualify for carrier subscriptions.

App Store Revenue Could Help Reduce Prices of iPhones, Macs, and iPad Tablets

There are fewer Apple mobile device than Android device users. However, according to App Annie, the iOS app store did 70% of the estimated $44.8 billion spent on app/games last year. It helps that Apple has an official app store in China, while Google (GOOG) has none. China is now the biggest market for mobile apps, worth $10 billion last year.

If we guesstimate that China’s 50% of China’s mobile apps industry went through the iTunes App Store there, Apple could be deriving $1.5 billion in annual commission. Getting $1.5 billion every year from Chinese in-app purchases could help Apple reduce the retail prices of its phones and tablets there.

Apple’s declining iPhone business in China is likely due to rising competition from much more affordable high-end Android phones made by Xiaomi, Huawei, Lenovo, and Vivo. The strong revenue steam from global iTunes App Store could subsidize a global-wide price reduction of iPhone and iPad products to help them compete better.

Conclusion

Apple’s stock went down by more than 2.5% after it did its earnings report today. It might go lower when market opens on Friday. Investors should try for a cheap buy-in window to purchase AAPL. I rate this stock as a strong buy for the long-term horizon.

On the other hand, I Know First’s short and long-term algorithmic forecasts for AAPL are all positive. The stock could shoot up to $125 within the next 30 days or 90 days.

I Know First Algorithm Heatmap Explanation

The sign of the signal tells in which direction the asset price is expected to go (positive = to go up = Long, negative = to drop = Short position), the signal strength is related to the magnitude of the expected return and is used for ranking purposes of the investment opportunities.

Predictability is the actual fitness function being optimized every day, and can be simplified explained as the correlation based quality measure of the signal. This is a unique indicator of the I Know First algorithm. This allows users to separate and focus on the most predictable assets according to the algorithm. Ranging between -1 and 1, one should focus on predictability levels significantly above 0 in order to fill confident about/trust the signal.

There are 26 TipRanks-tracked Wall Street analysts that also rate AAPL as a strong buy. Their average consensus 12-month price target for AAPL is $136.61.

Apple Stock Forecast

(Source: TipRanks)

I Know First Pass Success With AAPL

I Know First has been bullish on AAPL shares in past forecasts. On October 31st, 2016, an I Know First analyst wrote a bullish article on Apple Inc. in accordance with I Know First’s self-learning algorithm. The analyst wrote about a growth in iPhone sales during the 2016 holiday sales. In accordance with the algorithmic forecast, AAPL shares rose 7.23% to date.

The bullish forecast on AAPL was sent to I Know First subscribers on October 30th, 2016. To Subscribe today click here.


premium


Apple Stock Prediction Based on Self-Learning Algorithm: AAPL Yields Almost 13% In 1 Year

Apple Stock Prediction

This Tech Stock forecast is based on stock picking strategies for investors and analysts who need predictions for the 10 best tech stocks in the Technology Industry (see Tech Stocks Package). It includes 20 stocks with bullish and bearish signals and as well includes an Apple stock prediction:

  • Top 10 Tech stocks for the long position
  • Top 10 Tech stocks for the short position

Tech Stocks 165
Package Name: Tech Stocks
Recommended Positions: Long
Forecast Length: 1 Year (01/03/2016 – 01/03/2017)
I Know First Average: 37.99%
Apple Stock Prediction

The algorithm correctly predicted 8 out 10 of the suggested trades in the Tech Stocks Package for this 1 Year forecast. AMD was the highest-earning trade with a return of 298.26% in 1 Year. Additional high returns came from SINA and TCTZF, at 25.24% and 24.57% respectively. The package had an overall average return of 37.99%, providing investors with a 27.53% premium over the S&P 500’s return of 10.46% during the period.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), operates as a semiconductor company worldwide. The company’s products include mainly x86 microprocessor as an accelerated processing unit (APU) and graphic process units (GPU). It also provides microprocessors for desktop PCs.

Algorithmic traders utilize these daily forecasts by the I Know First market prediction system as a tool to enhance portfolio performance, verify their own analysis and act on market opportunities faster. This forecast was sent to current I Know First subscribers.

How to interpret this diagram

Please note-for trading decisions use the most recent forecast. Get today’s forecast and Top stock picks.

Apple Stock Forecast Based on Data Mining: AAPL Shares Yield Almost 4% In 3 Months

Apple Stock Forecast

This Apple stock forecast, from the Hedge Fund Stocks Package, is designed for investors and analysts who need predictions of the best-performing stocks according to I Know First’s stock market algorithm. It includes 20 stocks with bullish and bearish signals and indicates the best stocks to long and short based on artificial intelligence stock market analysis:

  • Top 10 Hedge Fund stocks for the long position
  • Top 10 Hedge Fund stocks for the short position

hedgefunds
Package Name: Hedge Fund Stocks
Recommended Positions: Long
Forecast Length: 3 Months (09/21/2016 – 12/21/2016)
I Know First Average: 17.69%
Apple Stock Forecast

This Hedge Fund Stocks Package forecast had correctly predicted 10 out of 10 stock movements. The top performing prediction from this package was URI with a return of 43.57%. CSX, and NRF had notable returns of 26.07% and 26.02%. The package’s overall average return was 17.69%, providing investors with a 11.83% premium over the S&P 500’s return of 5.86% during the same period.

United Rentals, Inc. (URI), through its subsidiaries, operates as an equipment rental company. It operates in two segments, General Rentals; and Trench, Power, and Pump.

Algorithmic traders utilize these daily forecasts by the I Know First market prediction system as a tool to enhance portfolio performance, verify their own analysis and act on market opportunities faster. This forecast was sent to current I Know First subscribers.

How to interpret this diagram

Please note-for trading decisions use the most recent forecast. Get today’s forecast and Top stock picks.

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