Apple Stock Prediction: Why Apple Will Release A New Mac Mini This Year

motek 1The article was written by Motek Moyen Research Seeking Alpha’s #1 Writer on Long Ideas and #2 in Technology – Senior Analyst at I Know First.

 Summary:

  • In spite of year-over-year declines in quarterly revenue and net income, Apple’s stock still jumped 5% during after-hours trading after its Jan. 29 ER.
  • iPhone’s quarterly revenue was down -15% Y/Y but Mac’s revenue was up 9% Y/Y. Revenue from iPad was up +17% and Services was up +19% Y/Y.
  • The strong sales growth of the iPad and Services segments convinced me that Apple will really release a new low-cost iPad Mini and iPad 9.7 inch this year.
  • Office productivity, mobile gaming, and watching streaming movies is still better on an iPad than on an iPhone.
  • Adobe will release an iPad/iOS native version of Photoshop CC this year. A $200 iPad Mini 5 with 7.9-inch screen is perfect for professional photo editing.

I was proven correct when I said that Apple (AAPL) will release a new Mac Mini in 2018. Last year’s release of an updated/improved Mac Mini helped the Mac segment deliver a +9% year-over-year (Y/Y) increase in quarterly revenue. Based on the holiday quarter earnings report of Apple, Mac segment earned $7.4 billion in Q1 2019.  Creative professionals like me love the Mac Mini because it is better than a MacBook (overheats during prolonged use) for graphic design/video editing/content creation.

Services Q1’ revenue was up 19% Y/Y ($10.9 billion), and iPad also delivered +17% Y/Y growth ($6.7 billion). This outstanding performance by the three segments of Apple definitely helped boost AAPL’s price by as much as 5.23% during the January 29 after-hours trading, post-ER.

[su_lightbox type=”image” src=”https://iknowfirst.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/AAPL_YahooFinanceChart-1.png”][su_tooltip style=”bootstrap” position=”west” rounded=”yes” content=”Click to enlarge”][/su_tooltip][/su_lightbox]

(Source: Yahoo)

China trouble was largely responsible for the big -15% Y/Y drop in quarterly iPhone revenue ($52 billion). Apple only managed to rake in $13.2 billion from iPhone sales in China in Q1 2019. This is almost $5 billion lower than what it made in Q1 2018 China iPhone sales.

The upbeat reaction during the post-ER after hours trading for AAPL convinced me that investors now better appreciate the non-iPhone revenue streams of Apple. The iPhone is tanking but the other segments – Wearables, Mac, iPad, and Services are all growing.

Please study the official chart below released by Apple for its Q1 2019 earnings report.

(Source: Apple)

The growing revenue streams from the iPad and Services segments convinced me that Apple will really release a new affordable (maybe $200) iPad Mini this year. The release of a $29/$329 9.7-inch iPad last year was responsible for the boost in quarterly iPad revenue.

Apple, The Entertainment Company, Needs The Mac Mini

Common sense tells me that mobile gaming and watching streaming movies and TV shows is still better on the iPad Mini’s larger screen display (than on the iPhone XS/iPhone XR). The larger size of the iPad Mini makes it also better in heat management than on an iPhone. The iPhone XR noticeably overheats when used during prolonged mobile gaming and movie watching.

The iPad Mini is vital to the future of Apple as a gaming and entertainment services provider company. Learned investors should now forget Apple as the iPhone company. Apple is now a leading video games and entertainment company.

A $200 7-9-inch iPad Mini 5 with Apple’s older A10x Fusion processor will make it the best mobile gaming device. Even the even older A10 Fusion processor is already a decent gaming System on Chip (SoC). The graphics performance of the A10 Fusion processor is better than the high-end mobile SoC Tegra K1 from Nvidia (NVDA).

(Source: Notebookcheck.net)

Due to the usually-affluent category of iPad/iPhone owners, Apple is the largest beneficiary of the $61.3 billion/year mobile games industry. The Services segment’s quarterly revenue of $10.875 billion is largely due to Apple iTunes’ 30% cut from money spent by iOS gamers. However, Apple’s video streaming service will soon grow to be a decent contributor to the company’s topline.

I reiterate that an iPad Mini is the best iOS gaming device that can help Apple increase its 30% cut revenue stream from the world’s top-grossing free-to-play (freemium with in-app purchases) mobile games. Unlike Google (GOOG) Apple is enjoying a 30% cut from the estimated $70 million monthly gross revenue of Fortnite iOS. Apple do not allow app/game developers to use its iOS platform outside its iTunes platform.

(Source: SuperData Research)

Conclusion

The iPad and the iPad Mini is important to the fast-growing Services segment of Apple. The iPad Mini;s affordability will also help boost the growing iPad segment revenue. Apple is now a video games and music/video entertainment company. Two years from now, the combined annual revenue from the other business segments of Apple may overshadow iPhone sales. An Apple less reliant on iPhone revenue becomes a much better long-term investment.

I rate AAPL as a buy. I Know First’s stock-picking AI algorithm has a bullish one-year market trend forecast for Apple’s stock.

Apple still trades well below the average 12-month PT of $183.98 made by TipRanks-tracked professional analysts. Going long on AAPL might prove very rewarding after a one-year period.

(Source: TipRanks)

Past I Know First Success Forecast

The following forecast refers to a previous successful I Know First algorithm prediction that gave a bullish long term outlook for AAPL which was included in a premium article on how the trillion dollar app economy is boosting Apple. The prediction was bearish in the short term, but saw a positive upside over the 1 year time horizon with a signal of 116.66 and a predictability indicator of .62. The Algorithm correctly predicted Apple’s share trend. 

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Please note-for trading decisions use the most recent forecast. 

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